New research suggests that Africa’s forests, long seen as a powerful buffer against climate change, are now adding carbon to the atmosphere rather than removing it.

An international study published in Scientific Reports, led by scientists at the National Centre for Earth Observation at the Universities of Leicester, Sheffield, and Edinburgh, found that forests across Africa have shifted from absorbing carbon dioxide to releasing more carbon than they store.

The change appears to have occurred after 2010 and highlights the growing urgency of global forest protection efforts, an issue that featured prominently at the recent COP30 Climate Summit.

Tracking biomass from space

To reach these conclusions, researchers combined satellite observations with machine learning to monitor changes in aboveground forest biomass over more than ten years. Forest biomass represents the carbon held in trees and other woody vegetation. The analysis showed that Africa’s forests gained carbon between 2007 and 2010, but extensive losses in tropical rainforest regions have since reversed that trend.

From 2010 to 2017, Africa lost an estimated 106 billion kilograms of forest biomass each year, roughly equal to the weight of 106 million cars. Most of this loss occurred in tropical moist broadleaf forests, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and parts of West Africa, where deforestation and forest degradation were the main drivers. Although some savanna regions experienced gains from increased shrub growth, these increases were not sufficient to counterbalance the overall losses.

Professor Heiko Balzter, senior author and Director of the Institute for Environmental Futures at the University of Leicester, said: “This is a critical wake-up call for global climate policy. If Africa’s forests are no longer absorbing carbon, it means other regions and the world as a whole will need to cut greenhouse gas emissions even more deeply to stay within the 2°C goal of the Paris Agreement and avoid catastrophic climate change. Climate finance for the Tropical Forests Forever Facility must be scaled up quickly to put an end to global deforestation for good.”

What satellite data now reveals

The study brings together information from NASA’s spaceborne laser instrument known as GEDI and radar observations from Japan’s ALOS satellites, along with machine learning techniques and thousands of field-based forest measurements. Together, these data produced the most detailed map so far of changes in forest biomass across Africa, tracking a full decade and revealing deforestation patterns at a local scale.

These results arrive as the COP30 Presidency announced the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, a new initiative designed to mobilise billions of Pounds in climate finance. The programme would compensate forested nations for keeping their tropical forests intact. The findings underline that without swift action to halt forest loss, the planet could lose one of its most valuable natural buffers against rising carbon emissions.

Paths forward for forest recovery

Dr Nezha Acil, co-author from the National Centre for Earth Observation at the University of Leicester’s Institute for Environmental Futures, said: “Stronger forest governance, enforcement against illegal logging, and large-scale restoration programs such as AFR100, which aims to restore 100 million hectares of African landscapes by 2030, can make a huge difference in reversing the damage done.”

Dr Pedro Rodríguez-Veiga, who carried out the bulk of the analysis at NCEO and University of Leicester and now working at Sylvera Ltd., said: “This study provides critical risk data for Sylvera and the wider voluntary carbon market (VCM), and shows that deforestation isn’t just a local or regional issue — it’s changing the global carbon balance. If Africa’s forests turn into a lasting carbon source, global climate goals will become much harder to achieve. Governments, the private sector, and NGOs must collaborate to fund and support initiatives that protect and enhance our forests.”